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Old 02-24-2008 | 10:36 AM
  #146  
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The Duke
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Even w/ the baby boomers departing the pattern, oil consumption is expected to skyrocket over the next 10-15 years...it has to as economic growth/development (GDP) is inextricably tied to oil consumption. Of course, none of these forecasts for increased oil consumption take into account the possibility of Peak Oil...the forecasts just assume that the oil will be there. That's the problem. Global oil production today is about 85 million bbl/day, it's expected to increase to roughly 115-120 million bbl/day within the next 15 yrs. or so. Today, oil production is flattening out despite increased demand, so I don't see how the world will be able to efficiently produce 30 plus million more bbl/day.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is at least 30 years away from becoming a viable business. It's a catch 22. Not enough producers of hydrogen vehicles/devices want to produce those devices because there is no infrastructure in place to efficiently move the hydrogen...companies that could put into place infrastructre to move the hydrogen are hesitant to do so because there is a lack of hydrogen-powered devices/vehicles in production. Again, most experts in hydrogen will tell you that we're at least 30 years away, maybe more, from hydrogen power becoming mainstream.

The downside to all of this talk about alternative energy is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to produce alternative energy...that initial energy output comes from the fossil fuels. So, we really should have started our move toward alternative energy years ago. The longer we wait, the harder the fall. It's sort of like waiting until you're too close to that thunderstorm to start your deviation, not a whole lot you can do but prepare for a bumpy ride...The real issue w/ the baby boomers is that thery're intimately aware of all of this, but they know they'll be gone soon, so they're not concerned about fixing it.
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