Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
Hard to see how flow would be 12 years. If you get hired at #1850 and AA takes 120/year, you only need attrition above you to average 40/year.
You should still use flow as Plan B, but I see 10 years as a reasonable outer limit
Averages are 100/yr (only flow if they have new hire classes) and attrition only helps when the attrition has more seniority than you, as was pointed out already, it slows to a crawl once you get so far.
10 years is a reasonable INNER limit estimate.