Originally Posted by
The Duke
I agree the net gain from hybrids is impressive, so re: hybrids alone, I stand corrected. However, the GDP needs to continue to grow (I think it's around 1.5-2% per year right now in the US) and that requires more oil. So my concern is that even w/ advancements in technology, such as hybrids, we will not be able to sustain our current growth. As we speak, China, by comparison, is roaring away @ about 11 to 10 % annual growth and is showing no signs of slowing...but they're arriving @ the party a bit late, so I do agree that their growth will inevitably slow, just not sure what their reaction will be when they have to face the music...
The current bottom line here in the US is that we are very close to, if not already in, a recession with oil at $100/bbl. It has gone UP since mid January, not down, which is not consistent with those who argue that a economic slow down will lower the price of oil.
It's a balance between the supply/demand curve and the level of economic activity. The supply side of the curve is deteriorating as extraction and refinement of oil has become more difficult. It is already overpowering the level of economic slowdown as part of the formula as the price moves UP in the face of recession.
What does logic say will happen as the economy heats up again? I don't like this any more that the next guy, but the denial on these boards and in Washington is frightening.
It's NOT going back down, ever. It can't! It's like the Terminator, it doesn't CARE.