Originally Posted by
The Duke
I agree the net gain from hybrids is impressive, so re: hybrids alone, I stand corrected. However, the GDP needs to continue to grow (I think it's around 1.5-2% per year right now in the US) and that requires more oil. So my concern is that even w/ advancements in technology, such as hybrids, we will not be able to sustain our current growth. As we speak, China, by comparison, is roaring away @ about 11 to 10 % annual growth and is showing no signs of slowing...but they're arriving @ the party a bit late, so I do agree that their growth will inevitably slow, just not sure what their reaction will be when they have to face the music...
Our GDP has almost doubled since 1979 with very little increase in oil consumption. It is easy to see that very great gains have been made in overall efficiency. The typical peak oil theorists are baffled by the apparent disconnect between GDP and oil use. It is not a linear function due to improvements in efficiency, but it is obvious that the price of oil has a very strong influence on the state of world economy.
As always any projections made become less reliable the further they extend into the future-more so when the number of variables is increased.
You may have missed it, but the Chinese are predicting a rather dramatic slowing of growth for the next couple of years.