I quite agree.

It also matters that some at the top are lifers and are not going anyplace.

Further, those at the bottom, say less than 1,000 hours and in the right seat, will likely not get hired by a major.

Yes, there are some junior that may jump to another regional as a FO. But at some point that is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

But one fourth of all the pilots leaving each year takes one’s breath away. My guess is a majority of these are from the left seat.

It is also consistent with the gross hiring numbers by the majors. Numbers that, based on upcoming retirements, will be sustained annually through the rest of this decade.