Just to pile on with some more opinions written in pencil on a wet napkin:

Simply there is no way whatsoever to know the answers to your questions. No way. Anything, and I mean anything speculated along these lines is a total and complete guess based on past experiences, current trends and (even worse) prognostications of the future of a very volitile and fickle industry.

It all depends on the overall economy, the aviation specific economy, the airline in question's specific situation relative to those things, plus current and future contracts and the current and future individual bidding behavior of well over ten thousand pilots.

You framed your question in the context of 13,000 individual bidders "stove-piping" their bids into the future. Meaning every position goes at or near linear seniority order based on pay, size or mission prestige. That is often largely the case when times are lean for a while. But when times are booming and movement is fast, normally many, many thousands of pilots choose to "bypass" for basing, quality of life, monthly bidding power etc. This is the case because as long as the option to "upgrade" or get a "promotion" is available, thousands of pilots hang out to enjoy their relative seniority.

But there really is no "promotion" aspect in that sense; its only what, when and why individual bidders choose to bid various ways.

A while back during a period of fast movement there were 1 or 2 new captains at the 6 month seniority mark on the most undesireable plane in the most undesireable base. While 95% of the airline was saying "I can hold captain" the fact is there were only 2 super junior spots on one bid one time for 2 pilots and we didn't see it again. Just a few humble years prior to that, the "junior Captain" was 15-20 years).

We can see the same thing for widebodies. Some entire classes are forced to go to the 7ER. This happened a lot in 2007 for example, and may happen again on occasional bids, until the door slams shut suddenly for years. Trying to predict A350 Captain is a guess now that can be off by decades by then.

So to answer your question, there's simply no way to answer your question. Other than to say that there often isn't the strict promotion style hierarchy many think should exist. You mentioned "career path" which is one of the biggest reasons things can swing so wildly. Many thousands of pilots, especially when things are good, choose to take or remain in "lower positions" (so to speak) for a while or for a long time thus creating those anomoly "promotions" and its likely you would also do the same when your time comes.