View Single Post
Old 08-13-2021, 08:48 AM
  #21  
Excargodog
Perennial Reserve
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,410
Default

Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
That is not the case with my financial management firm. They consistently rank in the top 1 or 2% of rate of returns over most years and averaged over a long period of time. They have a track record decades long.

Most financial investment firms do worse than the market averages. They are one of the few who do better. It is not just selling the losers to make the portfolio look better. It is not flash in the pan with one year good and the next year bad. It is not smoke and mirrors. They actually have a better rate of return, consistently.
Yep. And anyone in the right side of the bell shaped curve STAYS in the right side of the bell shaped curve…right up until they don’t. You can do it with coin flips. If you do enough of them, the win-loss distribution of a binomial approximates a Gaussian distribution




a certain small percentage will - by random chance - give you 40 ‘heads’ in a row, even with an honest coin.

That has no bearing whatsoever on the results of the next toss, although over time the central limit theorem implies that the expectation (50-50) is pretty much where you will end up with enough flips.
Excargodog is online now