I'm opted in too but I am still confused by how to bid it. It looks like you can use the Lance prediction tool on the SWAPA website to see if you'll be in the top 3% in any base, then you bid FO in that base and hope SWAPA was right... otherwise you just self selected a commute for no good reason.

It's all academic though, it looks like lance goes senior to the most junior Captains in every base (probably for just the reasons that were mentioned in the post above)

Since 78 of the 85 upgrades went to already captain qualified FOs, SWAPA says they'll use those training slots to refill the lances. So there might be some pretty surprised FOs getting a phone call in the next few weeks.

Off topic, Here's something weird. The SWAPA seniority snapshot on their website, the one on their app, and MySeniority.com all show a different seniority %.

Also on myseniority.com you can choose a growth rate for the pilot group, but it continues on in perpetuity. I'd love for some computer savvy pilot to build the same kind of forecasting tool but allow you to stop the growth at a specific point. For example, grow the seniority list at 5% per year until reaching 10,000 pilots then stop. I think that would provide a little better fidelity into when you'll be in that upgrade window.


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