Any discussion of UPS furloughing in the context of newhires deserves nuance.

Has it happened before? Yes, once, under a confluence of 1. age 65 change, 2. mass retirement of three-crew airframes, and 3. great recession. The common thread? Stagnation.

Could it happen again, in the future? Yes. Like at any airline, the risk at UPS is not zero…but we should all acknowledge its REALLY low.

For anybody recently hired or soon to be hired, do not let this talk of a very real decade-old event predispose you to think an F-bomb is close at hand. We’re short-staffed, still getting growth airframes, retiring pilots well ahead of mandatory figures with a massive looming wave and experiencing continued volume growth.

JMHO, caveat emptor, past results not indicative of future performance, YMMV, etc. etc.