A lot of great info on here. Thanks everyone for your input.

In regards to upgrade times, the numbers I have are telling me that it will take unit 2034 for someone hired today to get to 50% on the seniority list. This is based off of mandatory retirements only. There's been a couple comments on here as well as several of my UPS buddies that think that someone hired today could upgrade on a junior fleet (A300 or ONT) in anywhere from 4-8 years. That's a big difference from 13 years. The three things I see that support ~13 years are:

-44% of the seniority list having been hired sine 2012. Most my buddies that are telling me 4-8 years were hired anywhere from 1-5 years ago with most of them hired in 2017. At the point they were hired, only 15% of the seniority list was new hirers. They were at the beginning of the wave and I could see very quick upgrades for them.

-Mandatory Retirement Numbers: I attached a screen shot of the mandatory retirements that shows 50% of the seniority list will retire by 2034. It's not really possible to account for guys retiring early, but I know that COVID has convinced a lot of guys to retire early. Who knows if that trend will continue.

-Fleet Growth: Significant fleet growth or a larger seniority list with the current fleet would justify earlier upgrade times. Maybe this is the aspect I'm missing. It's my understanding UPS has 8 aircraft on order? Are these just to replace the MD? The "better not bigger" strategy seems to make me think UPS will prefer to continue offering 150% on open time pick up to avoid fleet growth.

Can someone comment on what's the rationale supporting 4-8 years?


On a separate note, a big benefit I hear about UPS is that the block time to total pay ratio is a lot lower. At Delta, assuming no premium pay, my block to pay ratio is about 80%. Most of my UPS buddies are in the 60's with a wide range anywhere from 55-80% depending on their fleet. The block time at Delta might be higher but I can say I truly enjoyed going to work here (pre-covid). My ideal trip is a 3 or 4 day with a 20-30 hour Caribbean layover. In 2019, I was getting a couple of those a month. I've read on here quite a bit about the different types of trips. Specifically on the A300 (top of my dream sheet), I've heard that it goes south of the border and the slower cruise speed tends to drive more layovers. Are there comparable layover options? Having a 3 or 4 day trip with a nice layover seems more appealing to me personally than the 4 am-noon day trips a lot of my UPS buddies prefer to do.