Originally Posted by
172skychicken
I doubt the footprint would expand much from what the 757 was doing precovid. If the lie flat 757s weren't able to generate enough CASM advantage vs the current generation 767 and A330 to justify keeping them on more TATL routes, I don't see how the A321 with 140 some seats does against the A350 or A339 either. From the RASM side of the house, we can make all the jokes we want about there being no money in cargo, but the narrowbodies are much less capable cargo lifters. A huge reason air freight prices soared with COVID was that so much capacity operated by passenger carriers essentially evaporated overnight. We may never operate dedicated freighters again, but that revenue is still a key component of our transatlantic operation. The lie flat product on the 757s is in desperate need of a refresh. My bet is that those are configured into the 199 seat domestic configuration as the A321s with lie flats come on property.
Good points, however the LCC toe dipping into premium TA flying will very soon become a cannonball. The intent is to absolutely slaughter legacy yields on the crown jewel of revenue production. They will use superior fuel efficiency on top of undercutting what legacies have grown used to for RASM CASM and trip costs. They will absolutely blow out our margins and wipe out our yields trying to send legacy marketing departments into a retreat on their terms to keep remaining routes as profitable as has been expected. Its just a London flight. OK a couple from a couple markets. OK also Ireland. OK also Paris etc etc. If successful, other LCC's will join in and a couple years down the road the yearly seat dump on once lucrative markets, especially lay flat at a fraction of the price, will be staggering.
Its already a war of attrition. The apparent capacity-war/rational growth truce the industry had during the 2008-ish doldrums is over. Gordon Bethuns once said "you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor." Lose money fighting them now, or lose far more fighting them later. If the 321 XL-Whatever is the best weapon to fight back, great. If counter dumping with widebodies makes more sense, awesome. But it can't go unanswered and on their terms.