tennisguru

That really depends on the drop and the makeup of the class. Generally ATL spots are rarer and also more desired so they go more in the top half. As to the NYC spots it really depends on what guys want longer term. If they're chasing pay rates or "cool" flying then they'll go for the 7ER. If they're hoping to get into SEA they'll more go for the 737 or 220. It's just impossible to predict what the desires of any particular class will be.

Speaking of impossible, even if you have say a 5XXX last 4 of your SSN, that in no way guarantees you'll be roughly midpoint in you class seniority. The probabilities say you most likely will, but you may end up in a group where 5XXX puts you in the bottom 25%, or maybe the top 25%. Again, impossible to predict how your particular class will break down. Assuming you've got the CJO in hand all you can do is hope for a good drop and lots of low SSN's in your class...

Edit: Also, pre-covid they used to do the drops and selections all on the first day of indoc, so you could see what the #1 person picked, then #2, #3, etc. Now that they've changed to awarding drops before people show up I haven't yet seen any class broken down by what people picked in seniority order, and thus what's been going more junior/senior...