Originally Posted by
FlyGuy2021
If you think Envoy will exist in it's current state in 7 years, let alone 10, then you are seriously misguided.
The regionals will be mostly gone in 5 years. Every single captain with a decent background (few training failures, no felonies) will be able to get hired by a major airline in 2022. Every FO will be able to upgrade and be hired at a major by the end of 2023. There are simply not enough pilots coming in to backfill. There should be absolutely zero pilots at Envoy by the end of 2023 that are on the seniority list now (unless they have several training failures, a DWI, and no college degree).
New hires in 2022:
AA: 2000
UA: 2100
DAL: 1800
Southwest: 1200
JetBlue: 800
FedEx: 800
UPS: 250
8000+ just at the "good" majors in a single year. That is more than every single regional captain working today.
Just as reference, the largest hiring at an individual airline was 1206 pilots hired by Delta in 2016.
Hiring rates more than that will break all time records. Not say it can’t be done. It has never been done before. Airlines can rent large hotel ballrooms to give classroom training. Simulators, in my mind, will be the bottleneck. More simulators purchased and installed? There is a lead time to build them and install them.
Separately, I have been saying what you are saying for years. I said regionals will have half (10,000 whereas we have 20,000 today) the number of pilots and one fourth the number of regional airlines in a few years. When I predicted that, I was called stupid. I think reality is about to catch up to my predictions.