Originally Posted by
FlyGuy2021
If you think Envoy will exist in it's current state in 7 years, let alone 10, then you are seriously misguided.
The regionals will be mostly gone in 5 years. Every single captain with a decent background (few training failures, no felonies) will be able to get hired by a major airline in 2022. Every FO will be able to upgrade and be hired at a major by the end of 2023. There are simply not enough pilots coming in to backfill. There should be absolutely zero pilots at Envoy by the end of 2023 that are on the seniority list now (unless they have several training failures, a DWI, and no college degree).
New hires in 2022:
AA: 2000
UA: 2100
DAL: 1800
Southwest: 1200
JetBlue: 800
FedEx: 800
UPS: 250
8000+ just at the "good" majors in a single year. That is more than every single regional captain working today.
Just an observation, but if AA was so much better, they wouldn't be having to bribe CA's to stay and flow rather than go to an LCC-ACMI. Don't get me wrong, AA is still a great job, it's just that so many others have caught up so close, or in cases like UA/DL/FE/UP surpassed AA... that wasting a few years waiting to flow just isn't worth it in the big picture.
I agree with the rest of your post, and have been saying as much for the past few years. I do think that the training failures, DUI, and other skeletons won't be as big a career killer as you imply depending on when they happened. The older they are, the less important they are. Anything over 5 years will be hirable, and over 10 years, will be a non-issue. As for the degree, most have already dropped the requirement to simply preferred, and by 2023 it won't matter.