Originally Posted by
NoValueAviator
Where are you getting 7 years from? That assumes 5 years worth of flows worth of attrition for a new hire now. Seems highly speculative.
If you assume 20/mo new hires flow in something like 12 years. Throw in an AA bankruptcy and you could be at 15+.
I don’t think that much attrition is out of the question. First year attrition is always high. Those that don’t make it through training, decide it’s not for them or just needing to get current again. Then all those leaving for ULLCs and other sectors. First couple of years still pretty high attrition. But you are right another Black Swan event could add years to things and depress the market, or as some have speculated end the regional model, whether in a good or bad manner.