Originally Posted by
rightseat
Seriously folks - do you really think we are going to have trouble finding qualified candidates that you will want to fly with?
Between the military folks who are fed up, the regional pilots that have been waiting for two years to apply and the corporate guys that got a lot of time during the pandemic, we will be fine for 1-2 years.
I think ivory tower folks may have to cough up a new contract (which I hope is after Delta and United’s), but our base structure, cash position, and longevity of not furloughing (I know, I know - we got the warn letters - but no one’s feet hit the street) - we will be just fine from a recruiting standpoint. The training standpoint may be another question.
The regionals on the other hand will be a whole different story within 12 months. I would not want to be flying with what they be able to put in the cockpits bu the end of 2022.
Thank you for steering the conversation back to the topic.
The truth is, no one knows. Southwest is a great place to “get stuck at.” You’ll make good money, you’ll have a good quality of life, especially if you live in base, but you’ll be flying the same type of airplane and the same type of flying for the rest of your career. The upgrade time will lag substantially behind the legacies despite the numbers thrown due to simple math, the sheer size of the airline and the relative young pilot work force.
I mention simple math. Ask yourself this question:
What can you hold at 90% master seniority at a legacy, FedEx or UPS? How about at 80% master seniority? 70%? 60%? At which percentage of systemwide seniority will you be able to hold captain at United? Delta? American? FedEx? UPS? At Southwest, it’s around 60% on the master seniority list that you’ll be able to upgrade, and we have just over 9,000 pilots, with retirement schedule of 950ish retiring within 5 years, 2700ish within 10 years. At Southwest, the race is to 60% system seniority if you want to upgrade. It would be nice if some of our OAL friends would contribute the percentage of the master seniority list for junior captain in NB fleet for valid comparison.
I don’t doubt that Southwest will be able to hire the numbers we’re looking for. The question is will we be able to retain them?