Originally Posted by
pitchattitude
the demise of regionals is not around the corner. There is just too much incentive to keep two separate classes of pilots.
there’s tons of demand for low-wage pilot labor.
the problem is supply. In particular supply of high-experience, low-wage labor. You can keep shoveling noobs in the front of the factory, but you need people to stay 6/8/10 years for the system to be self-sustaining with captains and LCA’s.
the current hiring environment makes that impossible for the system as a whole. Skywest has a core of lifers and isn’t constrained by a union contract - they might survive. But what does a carrier do when 3/4 of their LCA’s suddenly leave? The fed can’t buy LCA bonds to goose the supply.
At some point (soon) some unlucky carrier will be the first to park planes. And whichever major loses lift will start throwing money at the problem… probably at the still functioning carriers to keep them functioning. Whoever trips first will get left behind.