Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
Figure the average career at mainline is 30 years. If you want to guarantee a five year flow time, your mainline pilot group has to be six times bigger than your regional group. The numbers just don’t work.
Hiring is crazy right now because retirements are crazy. That is going to end in five or eight years and the music will stop and people will be waiting for 10 or 15 years for a mainline job again.
If they were going to do any sort of guarantees like that it should’ve been five years ago, not now.
YOUR math doesn’t work either. Just because a mainline career can be longer isn’t what makes the math not work. But I do agree that trying to change the flow to a guaranteed TIME FRAME is very difficult to calculate and maintain over the long term. Five years ago even there was no way to know what would be happening now and would have been impossible to hire to guarantee a five year flow even though they have been advertising it as such. With no way to really know what is required at the regional and mainline level, it really difficult, if not impossible to manage very far out. That doesn’t excuse more actively managing thing now, in the shorter term.