Originally Posted by
TiredSoul
Let me share a story with you,
Once upon a time I knew this guy who had big plans to become a pilot. Decent paying job nothing outrageous.
Then he got married, alright no harm done…yet. Then they decide to buy a house.
Come Instrument rating time he decides to buy a new truck. Now they have a child and he doesn’t have his CFI yet although he’s been at it for 3-4 years.
Very likely can’t live on fulltime flight instruction because he has house and car payments. Can’t move for a better paying CFI job because he’s got a house and a little kid.
Of course he can sell the house and move but by making a series of ‘normal’ life decisions he’s put himself on a track from which it’s very difficult to redirect.
This should have been: wait with the house, wait with the new truck, alright we can do the baby but I need to hurry up with my training so when the kid is 3-4 I am ready for the Regionals or whatever step after CFI.
Todays market is no garantee for next years or three years from now.
Just to put my tinfoil hat back on, we’ve had 4(!) major black swan events occur about every 10 years since I got my Private.
Early 90’s, 9-11, 2008/2009 economic downturn, COVID.
There will be another one come 2028-2030.
Black swan events every 10 years reminds me how people said a President dies who is elected in even decade ending in 0. 1860 elected Lincoln. 1880 elected Garfield. 1900 elected McKinley. 1920 elected Harding. 1940 re-elected FDR, 1960 elected JFK. All died in office. So, predictions were very strong the 1980 elected President, Ronald Reagan, was absolutely certain to die. Then the 2000 elected President, George W Bush was absolutely positively certain to die. Neither did. This goes to show past occurrences do not make accurate future predictions. Black swans can and will happen. But they are not an every decade certainty.