Originally Posted by
Swakid8
Not disagreeing with you. While the a seat 50 operator Carrie’s more risk. I just don’t see them going away as quickly. I think someone coming in today can get some quick experience at the right 50 seat operator within the next 3-4 years. They key is getting in the door today…
Only upper management knows how fast they’ll go away, but increasing fuel cost and attrition will greatly influence their path. United for instance is supposed to take over 170 deliveries by the end of 2023. The big attrition numbers at the regionals hasn’t really started yet. If fuel prices continue to rise and attrition picks up, the regional model might have to sacrifice pieces to save the whole. Others have a very good chance of just being cut. Air Wisconsin for example only flys 200’s for United and the contract isn’t expected to be renewed when it expires early 2023. Unless they can find another customer for tired 200’s or take over 70/76 seat or the 550 flying currently being done by others, I’d say that going there would be a last resort since the odds of having to start over in a year are pretty good.