This info is a little dated, but it’s what I used trying to determine my career. When the last pilot age info was released, in approximately the next three years roughly 20% of NJ pilots (I believe 2400 pilots were on the list at that point) will be at or above age 65. In the next 7 years it will be roughly 1200. This is the youngest pilot being age 65. We currently have pilots 80 years old on the list. So in the next few years we will have pilots retiring, losing medicals, or simply going beyond the average life expectancy. This also doesn’t take into account any growth, which there seems to be a good bit of at the moment. Given the average pilot age, growth, and getting through the furloughed upgrade list I would think upgrade time should come down significantly and finally get to the “organic” movement they seem to be shooting for.

This job isn’t for everyone and I still question going to the majors. It is working harder for overall less money. I personally measure everything against commuting and does it suck worse, however that’s due to my family situation. Someone else, maybe not. I don’t think there’s a wrong decision as I believe, at least based on today’s situation, either career will be a good one. It’s more what works for you.