Timing is everything in aviation. Unfortunately, we can't really see what is going to mess things up in the future. I was hired thinking I'd upgrade in a couple of years. I was very wrong. At least those who are hired this time around will have a pilot group that has has the vast majority 15+ years older than the last big push. While there is no mandatory retirement age here, pilots have actually been able to save quite a bit while they aged and will be able to afford retirement. I'd guess that well over 1000 will retire or medical out over the next decade. If I were young, I'd still probably go to a major unless I had something in my life that forced me into a hideous commute. At least this time around the likelihood of reasonably fast upgrades is much higher than last even without massive growth.