Probably behind a paywall:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...date-military/

Counting Guard/Reserve there are 50,000 who won't meet the deadline.

Leadership thinks as waivers are denied many will fall in line and get the shots. Also, a number not getting the shot are getting out of the service soon anyway.

Army-14,000
Air Force/Navy/Marines - 25,000
Air Guard/USAF Reserve -10,700

A handful of medical waivers have been granted, but no religious ones.

Navy and Air Force say members have 5 days to get the 1st shot after waiver denial. Navy says they will move aggressively to discharge those refusing to follow orders.
Army is taking a softer approach, saying they will give counseling before taking punitive action.