Originally Posted by
DoNoHarm
This is not what the manufacturers are saying, but we will see.
Don't forget, the majority of these are not growth, but to replace an outdated fleet. United keeps forgetting to mention that.
71 - Airbus 320s that will be ~26 years old in in 2023
32 - 767-300s that will be ~28 years old in 2023
21 - 757-200s that will be ~27 years old in 2023
United has one of the most outdated fleets in the industry. It will take a decade, and billions of dollars to replace all of this, especially with the delivery delays and supply chain shortages that will delay manufacturing for the next 3-5 years.
Once all 83 of the 757/767 are gone by 2024, wide body flying at UAL will be much different than it is today.
Kirby recently stated that 40-60% of the new aircraft ordered are for growth of mainline with the 50 seaters being the immediate target for retirement.
from the CrankyFlyer podcast:
The 500 aircraft order — 200-300 of those will be, in a chain event, replacements for 50-seaters. There are fewer and fewer markets for which regional airlines are going to work. As soon as a low cost carrier goes in and cuts the prices in half, the break-even load factor on our regional becomes 160%. They're just not gonna work.
and the entire 756 fleet will not be gone by 2024. We don’t start getting 321Neo’s/Max10 (if it ever gets certified) until 2023. the XLR is to replace the 757-200’s on international routes and those don’t come until 2024. The 767-300/400 have no planned replacements as of now, and with them having gotten nose to tail refurbs (767-400 is supposed to start getting Polaris next year) they aren’t going to be retired anytime soon except for some cataclysmic event due to the money invested and being paid off. Yes maintenance costs get higher but their operating trip cost is competitive across the Atlantic.
Will older aircraft be retired over the next decade? Sure. But there isn’t going to be a large parking of aircraft just because new ones are arriving in 2023.