No retirements to speak of, a decent amount of attrition, but I think most are first year, so won't affect progression past first year much. Current bypass ratio has most junior PIC at 65%. Unless bypass ratio changes dramatically, (and I see no reason why it should, short of a new contract with dramatically better reserve rules), the company will need 50% more pilots from the day you get hired to upgrade. Fleetplan for the next 2 years (nothing published beyond 2023, so add salt as required) show a growth of about 15% per year. That means a 3 year upgrade. However, to get a line as a PIC is over 6 years since DOH in my base right now, that will probably get shorter as there was pretty much no hiring in 2020, but count on at least 2 years of reserve if you take the first available, with very little schedule flexibility.