Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
im not saying this to be a smart ass it’s just the honest truth it straight chaos here with these bids. We will have hired 2000 from May 2021 to May2022. With early outs we only have 200 retirements next year. I think by next fall we won’t be seeing WB FO slots go unfilled or CA seats. However what will be Junior? Who knows.
right now every base is ubtainable on your first bid. Typically the music stops in IAH,DEN and ORD first though.
I don't think you came across as a smart ass at all. I appreciate the candidness. Despite how many people seem to feel right now, my contention has long been that getting hired at a legacy right now puts you well on the top of the hiring wave, and very likely closer to the back of the wave than the front. Most hired now would see rapid progression and a great first 4-5 years... right up until they quickly hit a wall - Where they may need to choose between eternal senior FO or eternal reserve capt and possibly commuting to a base they don't want. I'm really trying now to get realistic views on this and determine whether my suspicion is correct, or if it's just an excuse I made up in my head to not try to make the jump from where I'm at. From what I gather from your post, I may not be far off in my views.
Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
it’s hard to look at the current scenario and imagine Chicago being out of your reach for more than a few months at most. How long to upgrade, how long to hold a line, different question. But with the numbers they are hiring, it’s really hard to imagine narrowbody FO slots being restricted anywhere.
Thank you for that. For you, MasterOfPuppets, or anyone else to answer: Realistically, how many years would it take for a narrowbody FO, living in base to be able to clear $200k annually? I know I can simply multiply hourly rate by min guarantee, but we all know there is more to it than that. As I previously said, I'm currently a ULCC captain and commuting, but hopefully will be able to transfer to my home domicile shortly (how long my home domicile will remain a domicile is unknown they way my shop has liked to pull out of expensive markets lately), about 27 years left to retire, married, two kids with number three on the way any day now, and with my airline's current order book, if things go anywhere close to planned, I will be in the top 20% seniority company wide by 2029. IF I decided to try to make the move I would want as little disruption to my current family life as possible. That may mean staying narrowbody FO in base for a bit and not chase commuting to widebody FO, bottom reserve widebody FO living in base, or bottom reserve captain. The other part of that disruption equation is income as my family currently knows it. We can always live on less if we had to, but doing it because I chose to is a different story which is why I posed the question of narrowbody FO income.