Originally Posted by
Gundam
I would love for that to be true because it would mean nearly all my flying career aspirations could be achieved in 10 years despite not really thinking about it until 2 years ago.
Unfortunately, D's old fleet prints money and AA burns it. D's fleet renewal will just put it that much further ahead. Management also typically doesn't vary that wildly. Even if DL were to deteriorate, it would probably be slow, as it has been for AA. Unless AA gets extraordinarily good at hedging fuel (which they completely quit) I don't see any way for it to improve its position outside of a brutal restructuring, or getting extremely lucky and smart.
Another thing about the debt. AA just needed to stop buying back stock. It wanted to increase share price while also changing the fleet. Any other airline need only recognize the foolishness of doing stock buy backs while having a large debt obligation. Simply renewing a fleet doesn't put an airline in AA's position.
It would be great if AA ran away with it and anyone going there could just take great seniority, great bases, and the promise of great pay. Maybe that will happen and Isom will be on the cover of Forbes with an interview about how he "turned it around." Who knows.
Fair enough; I just don't think AA is that bad of shape right now. Yes, their debt stinks, yes their product stinks. But the fundamentals of the business aren't shabby; AA has the largest CC miles base, they have a super young fleet that keeps getting younger (and a bone to pick, you can't cut it both ways; AA re-fleeted and had to buy airplanes those cost money, so why does AA's re-fleet and debt any less brutal? Honest question- and to add to it- AA ordered in what 2018? cheaper by a decent amount than to order airplanes now. And how does their 777 and 787 cost more?) and they have a lock-in some decent to strong markets (don't laugh, Philly is a goldmine for them, as is CLT and a lesser extent PHX). I'm just saying, the management comes and goes and it will take a while to right the ship. And don't take this the wrong way- delta was a dumpster fire about 15-20 years ago (remember Song?) that wasn't a good idea- then again they all did it- here's looking at you TED....) What I'm saying is that delta is decent to good now, might not be that way for long. They ordered a TON of airbii lately and while the RASM is good, it's hard to maintain that forever. I think each of the big 3 does something brilliant and some pretty bad stumbling as well.