Originally Posted by
Hedley
The slower attrition over the next couple of years will be offset by growth. United for example has over 170 NB aircraft slated for delivery by the end of 2023. The hiring required for this kind of growth will far exceed what would have been needed if the fleet plan was the same as before the pandemic. They’re going to build a new sim building at TK to house the new Airbus sims that will be needed for the NEO’s and a couple more max sims as well. The pendulum is finally swinging towards the creation of well paying jobs after decades of going the other way.
How many NB will be retired by the end of 2023? They say that those new orders are for growth, but only the naive can't see through that. How many 777s will UA actually bring back from storage?
The 320 CEOs are getting old and tired, the 752s are going away, and I'm willing to bet many of the GuppyNGs will get parked too.
The economy is going to slow down next year when interest rates go up, unless interest rates don't go up, but in that case we will see more large inflation which will have negative impacts on demand as well.