By the end of 2022, the regionals will have mostly run out of eligible pilot candidates and the legacy airlines will still be looking for 3000+ pilots to hire. All 5 of the "big boys" will increase pay and benefits to try to draw as many pilots out of the ULCC's as possible. As pilots start to leave the ULCC's (most from the bottom of the list at first), working conditions will start to decline. Cancelled trips, no upgrades, and an over stressed operation with no growth and no end in sight. This will cause even more to leave. It will cause a snowballing effect and more and more ULCC pilots will make the jump.

As more and more make the jump, fewer passengers will be flying on ULCC flights and the more will be flying on Legacy flights. This will cause the demand for even more pilots at the legacy carriers.

In January alone, more than 50 Spirit pilots are expected to turn in their notice and go elsewhere. With legacies now hiring regional FOs, there is little reason for anyone with a good record to go to a ULCC.

There will be no real growth in any of the ULCC's in the next 5 years, and at best stagnation will occur.