Originally Posted by
Excargodog
There are downsides to living in rural areas with low population density. Certain issues that depend on logistics, frequency, and economies of scale, like a major medical center or busy airport, just aren’t going to be there. That’s always been the case. But what has not been the case is the shortfall of replacement aircraft to replace the aging 50 seaters or pilots to crew them.
I don’t see people resuming manufacture of current technology 50 seaters in this environment but then neither do I see anyone willing to build electric powered or hydrogen fueled small pax aircraft in this environment either. PAX carrying drones, I suppose, are possible, but currently those aren’t particularly fast. A Military Predator drone only travels ~110 knots or so. Granted, that can be straight line, but it isn’t much more than twice the speed of a private auto. I don’t see any quick or cheap fixes to this problem.
And yet all of the legacies have built their business model around a hub and spoke design that significantly depends on regional feeders, including 50 seat feed that will soon not be there..
New turboprops maybe? But there's also the issue of pilots... if you can't hire them for $19k/year it makes small regional planes of any sort much less viable.
Some discretionary travel business might be lost. Most of it will simply shift to driving/bus to a bigger town... there are few place which are more than 2-3 hours from a hub and fewer still such that you can't drive to a somewhat larger town which has either ULCC or regional service.