Best of luck to you in your decision. For myself, chasing an upgrade just doesn't seem like a smart move, as we've all said that changes quickly, and the reason i stuck out TSA was because my lateral move would have been even more lateral than some others who got back "home" as being from STL, i would have been trying for Chautauqua as opposed to Shuttle/Republic which for the same equipment, better management, but less pay, just didn't make a lot of sense.
And for what it's worth, most junior CA in the March upgrade class was a Sept. 06 new hire, putting upgrade at 18 months right now, not exactly a year anymore.