Also keep in mind that a risk premium has been build into the bbl since the majority of oil comes from very volatile areas (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria). Even though supply has been slowly keeping up with demand, there is less and less of a cushion in the event of a supply disruption, a very tangible threat with these regions thus the risk increases. Again couple this with the fact that large financial institutions, hedge funds, etc. are POURING money into the commodities markets to try and take advantage of price changes and hedge against them. These are not producers or consumers of oil, just speculators. As you can see the rise can't be blamed on any one facet of the overall market or its influences.