Originally Posted by GoCats67

I think that one of the hardest parts about making the evaluation as an individual is how to weigh in what you think others will do. In normal times I don't think it has mattered that much, but these are anything but normal times. So, if you decide that you are going to stay the course, but a large number of other pilots decide they are going to leave, it now could mean something much worse than it historically would have. In the past this just meant a little more hiring and perhaps some leverage to get things improved in the contract. However, right now hiring is so fast and so huge at UA, AA, DL, WN, FX, etc it could mean that F9 could lose the ability to operate the schedule without having massive hiring to replace the pilots leaving. It doesn't seem like they have gotten ahead of this need, and once you get behind you can't catch up until other airlines stop hiring. In the crazy times that we live in right now, I dont think that they can keep up with the attrition.

Hiring at the big carriers is projected to continue for the months to come, so the attrition at the regionals and ULCCs is going to continue through those same months. I firmly believe that the schedules for the regionals and several of the ULCCs are going to be blown up this summer and it is going to be the @#$%show to end all @#$%shows throughout the summer. God help us when Tstorms start!!

I think this situation is definitely going to be worse at the regionals than at the ULCCs, but I am getting more and more convinced that it is definitely going to be a major problem at the ULCCs. So, even if you want to stay, I think the question becomes do you think enough others will stay to prevent a meltdown that coud kill the airline. I think the departures from the airline are going to outpace the new hires, the question is will they outpace them enough to not just prevent growth but actually cause the inability to even fly the current schedule (much less what they would like to fly)

It is an absolutely great time to be just starting into your commercial career, but it is a much trickier time to be a few years in at a ULCC. Definitely first world problems compared to those in this career after 9-11, but problems nonetheless