Originally Posted by
Dunkin
AA says 30-60 day bookings look really good and they expect to be profitable in March. In the next 5 years instead of buying back shares and spending billions of capex on merger expenses they’ll be paying down $15 billion in debt. I think the biggest issue for legacy carriers is going to be keeping the network together with a shortage of regional pilots. I don’t see how we don’t get to a point where the E175s are on the mainline certificate in a few years if they want to keep the flight frequency up to small/medium sized markets.
Pay off 15 billion of debt in 5 years? That is a pipe dream. AA has never, not even in it's most profitable year ever, been able to generate that kind of cashflow. Not even close. The savings they keep talking about, 900 million a year or what the latest number was again, goes directly into paying the higher interest because of increased borrowing.
They can only touch 7 billion of their liquidity without triggering their loan covenants, so they really don't have that much wiggle room.
They will survive, but it will be interesting to see what plays they will call.