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Old 01-25-2022 | 09:38 AM
  #5661  
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rickair7777
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
I’m really not liking the direction we’re headed. Ukraine/Russia escalation, inflation, increased interest rates, increased chance of consumer spending slowing, and of course the never ending Covid restrictions. I just have a bad feeling for 2022/3.
My SWAG is that RU will avoid an overt invasion, but continue with low-intensity and asymmetric pressure. Putin is trying to distract folks at home from their struggling economy... conflicts tends to do that, but the long-term ramifications of the inevitable western sanctions (more than what he has now) will only aggravate the situation.

Assume that Putin's big-picture motives WRT to eastern Europe are to retain those states in the RU sphere so as to assure a market for RU exports. Since RU cannot really compete with western innovation and efficiency, they need to ensure that their eastern market states stick with the post-soviet gangster paradigm of government. If other eastern states respond to a UK invasion by turning to the West (and worse if NATO embraces them), that would be counter-productive.

He probably doesn't want to kick that hornet's nest just to ostensibly "save" a handful of ethnic Russians from UK oppression
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