Nice one Bubs. You found a post from 4 years ago, in January 2018. Newguy wrote "2 weeks ago you were saying there wasn’t attrition."

2 weeks ago, 4 years ago, is a huge difference in aviation timeframe. But even then, both of you forget that words matter. I never said "there isn't attrition" which is what newguy claimed.

There is attrition, there's always been attrition, the question is how much. I wrote (quite clearly) that there wasn't an attrition problem that could be construed as leverage when it comes to a new contract. Last year there was something like 42 for the entire year. This year, it looks like about 18 (?) for the month of January alone. This trend is very likely to continue. Lets assume it's 18 every month like it was January and that is about 216 for the year. Out of the total, what 3,150 so far? And likely 3400 by year end? So you're talking attrition picking itself from 1.4% to about 5-7%. A huge increase, sure, but isn't Sun Country like where of their ~400 pilots, 150 resigned in one year which was a full 38% in one year attrition and ultimately the reason they got a TA asap to prevent the bleeding.

The floodgates are opening. But how much attrition is enough to shake their knees? I don't know about you, but I just watched the video and clearly stated that the plan is to over hire a little more than planned in order to address the attrition issue. IMO it doesn't sound like they are shaking at the knees on pilot attrition. Time will tell. I hope I'm wrong, but I still don't see a new contract by year end due to attrition issues.