Originally Posted by
GoCats67
So Jan 31st class was 10. The goal for the next two is 40. If you start in the 4/3 class you will likely get out to the line in June sometime. So that means that the three classes Jan 31, Feb 28 and Apr 3 will get 90 people out on the line (at the most) by sometime in June.
If the current hiring at AA,DL,UA,FX, and WN keep going (as they all say they will) between now an June, I suspect way more than 90 will leave before June. (as well as difficulty actually getting 40 in each of the next two classes)
Not sure if 40/month represents the max training capacity, but the math on this does not look good if it is.
This has been my point all along.
The real issue at bay is that there’s NO WAY to predict attrition. I can imagine ALL other airlines are looking at resumes and setting those aside that show a LCC as the CURRENT job. They offer them right away. Every one of our losses causes a two fold detriment in both training cost and replacement cost. It’s even worse for every CA as now we have to hire two FOs and upgrade another.
UA, DL and AA not only get a new pilot but they get one already through school (trained) and take away from us. It doesn’t reduce their training costs but it helps them provide better/more proven pilots.
The issue is MUCH worse than I think most realize. We could interview 100 offer 50, train 40 and still shrink due to attrition. Buffoonery from above is the main problem…