Well I think a thorough explaination of the futures markets is way beyond appropriate for this site but basically the futures traders create an artificial price market by influencing the prices by emotion. As you state, the upward trend goes on for so long based on fear and speculation........just like the dot com bubble, just like the housing bubble. People have the perception of realistic prices based on what market makers (large futures traders) decide. Its happens in the stock market as well. As we all know the dot com companies were hugely overvalued based on opinion rather than cash value. The real estate market, again, was valued based on emotion, not reality. SO, the futures market overvalues the price per barrel of oil, this trickles down ultimately to the pump in that owners are forced to raise price per gallon to afford delivery of new gas for their tanks. Throw in crude oil supply, devalued dollar, volatile oil nations and a panicked public and you have your recipe.

Your dip in January was due to a much lower demand in fuel oil stemming from much higher winter temps thus no matter the will of the futures market, demand became the glaringly obvious influence dictating the result. As I've stated before, there's no one "smoking gun" as to why oil is so high. Futures markets are just one large facet of the whole equation.