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Old 03-08-2008 | 07:22 PM
  #252  
WhizWheel
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Joined: Mar 2008
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From: dogstyle
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Originally Posted by JetPiedmont
WW- Did you see the dates on those memos? Most were from 1996, 12 years ago. Oil was about what? $12/bbl? I guess they were having refinery margin issues.

Wasn't it the Shell Oil geologist Dr Hubbard that first came out with "peak oil" theory back in 1970? Made some bold predictions that turned out to be pretty accurate. Then this "Hubbard's Peak" book came out last year, outlining Hubbard's story.

Now oil's $107/bbl with the US close to recession? It's a deception? My airline shut down last year due, in part, to high fuel costs. They couldn't raise fares fast enough.

Real enough for me.

JP
Fair enough and I really enjoy this debate as you certainly have a valid point of view to offer. I'll just submit that you think that even though these practices of the major oil companies came from 1996, that it still doesn't happen today? Perhaps even MORE so?

Just as a side note, there's an area called Eugene Island, about 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana that was a large oil discovery in 1973 initially pumping out 15,000 barrels of oil which slowed to about 4,000 barrels close to 20 years later. Recently the production has jumped back up to around 13,000 barrels, spawning some research as to why. It turns out that 3D seismic imaging has showed a deep fault that has opened up releasing a gush of oil up through the rock into the existing supply thus replenishing it. Now call me crazy but I would venture a guess that this isn't the only place on Earth that this is happening, we just haven't had the time or resources to monitor this phenomena at other sites. Pretty much makes the peak oil theory antiquated logic.

FYI:

The initial theory behind what is now known as the Hubbert curve was very simplistic. Hubbert was simply trying to estimate approximate resource levels, and for the lower-48 U.S. he thought a bell-curve would be the most appropriate form. It was only later that the Hubbert curve came to be seen as explanatory in and of itself, that is, geology requires that production should follow such a curve.

Indeed, for many years, Hubbert himself published no equations for deriving the curve, and it appears that he only used a rough estimation initially. In his 1956 paper, in fact, he noted that production often did not follow a bell curve. In later years, however, he seems to have accepted the curve as explanatory.

Last edited by WhizWheel; 03-08-2008 at 07:49 PM.
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