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Oh, I definitely wouldn't rule out WN trying to buy just about anyone. They're a very different airline now than they were 15 years ago and with the problems they've been having lately, anything is possible. I'm just saying that I predict any merger/acquisition action by a Big 4 for one of the remaining mainline carriers will be met with significant DOJ scrutiny and almost certainly an antitrust suit. And, given that writing on the wall, I think it has served as a deterrent so far and will continue to do so, but that's my opinion. As I said before, pilots on here have been predicting a wave of mainline consolidation for years now. First time even an iota of this has happened formally has been today. Originally Posted by rickair7777
I wouldn't absolutely rule out WN buying someone, they would still be #4 IIRC. Trust-busters (and some pols) may not like it, but they don't have a compelling case when the big three are still larger than any hypothetical WN merger. Also remember that for this calculation airline size includes regional feed, which makes the big three that much bigger. Details like route structure matter, but fundamentally they probably can't in fairness tell WN that they can't merge.
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Route overlap does not preclude mergers. Everybody serves LAX for example, so there are enough options that any two could merge there without real market effects.
Where overlap matters is in markets where the merger partners collectively dominate... for WN and AS that would be SAN. A merger approval would almost certainly be conditional on the divestiture of some gates there for sure. But as long as you can divest where you have to for regulatory approval, without ruining the economics of the whole network, you can make it happen.
I didn't say it did preclude mergers in and of itself. But it is a factor, and that's why I brought it up. I appreciate the devil's advocacy, as always.Route overlap does not preclude mergers. Everybody serves LAX for example, so there are enough options that any two could merge there without real market effects.
Where overlap matters is in markets where the merger partners collectively dominate... for WN and AS that would be SAN. A merger approval would almost certainly be conditional on the divestiture of some gates there for sure. But as long as you can divest where you have to for regulatory approval, without ruining the economics of the whole network, you can make it happen.