Originally Posted by
contrails
Think of it this way, there's around 13,300 right now and:
- Most categories are handing out plenty of greenslips in the slowest month of the entire year of flying
- International fleets are not staffed normally yet since they are doing domestic ops
Probably ought to be at 14,500 right now just to avoid another holiday mass cancellation event, without any growth.
I agree, sounds like if we keep this pace (200/month) til summer 23, with scheduled retirements factored in, we will be around 16,000 pilots, give or take.
But this all falls into the category of speculation, albeit more like an educated guess.