Originally Posted by
Andy
He and I are just observing trends and commenting on them.
I've told regional pilots a few years ago that the regional model would be dead in the not too distant future. Assuming no major economic changes or another flareup of Covid, 12 months from now, regionals will be near extinct and ULCCs will be shrinking.
While it took some time for regionals to shrink, I would expect the ULCC shrinkage to be accelerated.
But I'm only looking at the trends and forecasting based on current trends. It's possible things could change, but I don't see anything on the horizon that will change the trajectory.
Revisit this subject at the end of the summer. I'll be curious to see how worn out you are - it'll be profitable for you, but it'll be a brutal summer.
The regionals will always have a necessary place in the industry. There are select markets where it is economically unfeasible to operate narrow body aircraft and fulfill capacity.
As much as many of us would like to see a return of the '70s and '80s where main line carriers operate to smaller domestic markets, it just isn't in the economic feasibility of most carriers. What I do see happening is a continued market of ejets but likely with reduced frequency.
I can tell you in our market a metropolis of about 200,000 people, we used to have over 15 flights per day to Chicago O'Hare by various carriers. That is now been reduced to about seven flights per day and has held at that capacity for the last 7 to 8 years.
Also regional operators like Skywest Airlines and Mesa can purchase older equipment at very affordable prices and have the infrastructure to operate them cheaply. It will be interesting to see how the industry changes over the next 5 to 6 years but I don't foresee the regional airline model vanishing.