Prior to COVID the ULCC model in the US was doing pretty well, growing market share, and working towards the sort of market share that ULCCs have in Europe:



The decrease (if not demise) of the regional model is going to hurt legacies far more than anyone else. Yes, I know they can pick up that flying with NBs that have a lower CASM, yada yada, so can the ULCCs. But legacy managements aren’t stupid. If they thought they could have done that without it costing them more, they would have eliminated regional codesharing a decade ago. Losing regional flying may be a plus for ULCCs that pick up those regional routes, but it won’t be for the legacies. And the gates freed up by declining numbers of regional aircraft open new markets fir hub to hub competition.

We are headed into interesting times.