I think what surprised them was the ULCC hiring of high time FOs. Back when the entry criteria for admission to the majors was 1000 TPIC, the AVERAGE time was still 2000TPIC. So on average every CA - before they left - provided enough left seat time to upgrade qualify two FOs and an FO waiting a “mere” two or three years to upgrade was a recruiting tool. For that matter, depending on base, FOs might accumulate 1200-1500 hours or more before there was even a position in their base into which they could upgrade. But that was then and this is now.

Now, not only regional CAs with less than 1000 TPIC are getting major CJOs, but so are middling to high time FOs. And much like the retired military flyers doing ‘touch and goes,” and the FOs who leave for ACMI jobs without ever upgrading, they take all their SIC hours with them without ever becoming CAs who can provide the 121 PIC hours that permit FOs to get 121 SIC hours. And yeah, it DID catch the MBAs by surprise and no, they DON’T have a fix for it. It’s a queuing problem and by it’s nature sort of UN fixable - at least in the short run and even in the long run unless the majors cease hiring one another’s regional guys.

It really doesn’t matter how many newbies you throw in at the bottom - in fact, that may only make it worse. Barring a change to allow 121 CA upgrades with less than 1000hr of 121 SIC time, this might shut down ALL the regionals.