I think we will see some 6 digit (not fake airtran 6 digit, actual employee numbers that coincide with seniority) upgrades before the year is out. There will be some guys that hold out to take their summer vacation and then bid another year of them, but that will probably get resolved in one bid.

Look at the hire dates on the seniority list starting in 2011. We didn't hire many people between 2010-2013. That four year period will get swallowed up quickly.

I also agree that the etops lock is a huge factor. Anyone who lives east of Denver (most of those airtran guys) is in for a world of QOL pain if they upgrade early. Look at the etops list for Vegas. It's pretty senior on the captain side. That means at least 6 months of commuting to reserve in LAX or OAK, even if they can make it back to their time zone prior to that. Yuck.