Originally Posted by
LonesomeSky
Airline stocks are in a weird place right now. Their current value is higher than where they should be based on current travel demand, but also they're priced much lower than they would be if travel makes a full comeback. Current prices have some hope for the future baked in but also some uncertainty.
Alaska's share price has tracked pretty close to the other US carriers which IMO undervalues Alaska. Domestic travel is coming back faster than foreign travel, Alaska has the lowest operating costs of any non-ULCC, and Alaska has the strongest balance sheet. We should be trading at a premium, but we're not. Investors seem to be trading airline stocks as a block rather than looking at each individual player.
That makes sense.
Originally Posted by
LonesomeSky
Which leads us to world events, specifically Russia/Ukraine. The knee jerk reaction is for oil prices to surge and airline stocks to plunge, but maybe that's just a short term reaction? As strong as our sanctions have been, they still aren't targeting Russia's energy exports. And even if the western nations stopped importing Russian oil, it would probably still find its way onto the market via China. So unless Russia itself decides to keep its oil off the market (unlikely), the world's supply of oil hasn't changed.
Yes, oil is a global commodity. Also OPEC typically has unused production capacity, since they try to manage the global price point... so they should be able to ramp up to offset at least part of any actual shortfalls which develop. They do not want prices through the roof... that both damages economies and in this day and age forces consumers to green alternatives, from which they won't return. OPEC takes the long-term view.
Originally Posted by
LonesomeSky
Freezing Russia's foreign assets has backed Putin into a corner. This risks him starting a wider war but it also means Ukraine might actually win and Putin could lose his grip on power. That's a wide range of outcomes when thinking of how to value a stock. A full on European war and Alaska's stock goes towards $20. A return to stability and Alaska's stock goes to $100. If you're on the board of directors and you're considering share price with a 5, 10,15 year time horizon, you're probably not going to sell today, there are just too many variables. The same goes for a buying entity. It's just too hard to price anything, and maybe you want to horde your cash until things blow over.
Could be. Definite uncertainty right now.