Originally Posted by
threeighteen
The 50 seaters will get parked fast. Not all of them, but many will go. The ones remaining will be on government subsidized routes. The 65-76 seaters will be getting run ragged through tough times though. Cheap staffing at the regionals and slowed hiring at majors will benefit regionals during this time. Majors will likely park the older portions of their narrowbody fleets (UA's airbus fleet, 752 fleet, etc)
50 seaters will return full force in the form of ultra efficient turboprops like the new Embraer that launches this decade. The 145/200 will last until then. And as major hiring comes screeching to a halt here in the next few months with WW3 oil prices, the regionals will be able to catch up on staffing. A lot of those small markets were only dropped for staffing issues, and they will return as staffing at the regionals catches up.
WW3 oil prices is a little over dramatic. Prices will increase, but the world won’t stop spinning.
From everything that I’ve read about the Embraer turboprop is that they’re talking about something in the 70-90 seat capacity range and that will be problematic in the US market due to scope. Also, they are only considering the possibility of a 50 seat version at this point. I don’t see airlines parking 175’s to buy a turboprop. I also don’t see the 145/200’s lasting that long, especially if fuel prices stay up for longer than we would like.