If oil prices and inflation stay high, everyone will be impacted. People will have less discretionary income and ticket prices will have to match the rising cost of fuel. One thing to consider is that oil will have to hit $170/barrel to equal 2008 prices adjusted for inflation. A recession is a very real possibility given the situation in Ukraine coupled with our domestic fiscal policies. A recession is still a minor blip compared to the global freak out over covid. Demand won’t go down 85% like we saw in 2020, however 10-15% would be possible. If fuel and inflation stay high for a long period I’d expect the 70/76 seaters to fly very hard, the 50 seaters retired sooner than planned, and markets that can’t support 70 seat or larger aircraft dropped. On the legacy side I’d expect deliveries to continue and focus near term on replacing older, less efficient aircraft. When demand recovers, future deliveries could then be used for growth. United for example has around 500 aircraft on order, with approximately 200 of them being growth. The current plan is for the near term deliveries to be all growth, while future deliveries focus on replacing older aircraft. In a major recession they would probably continue to take delivery and focus on improving efficiency. The Max 9 for instance has a couple more seats than the 757-200, yet burns about 2,000 lbs/hour less fuel. The max and neo both have a fuel burn that is approximately 16% less than their standard versions. If fuel prices do stay high, I’d think that increasing efficiency would be the name of the game. As the thread title indicates, this is all just speculation.