Its not absolute, in fact my impression is the airlines will struggle to exist in their present form at cost point less than $200, again assuming this isn’t a transient situation. Oil is at 128 today, Alaska is already pulling back capacity. I would expect that hiring will stop, a good chance the 5-2022 bid cancels and a reduction bid follows, that’s just for starters.
The airline bailouts during Covid saved a bloodbath of furloughs, my opinion of what is coming is going to be far worse, but that’s just my opinion. If oil reaches $200-300 in addition to the runaway inflation we currently face, the avg family will not have discretionary income to travel.
I hope I’m totally wrong, this is simply what I believe is likely to happen.