​​There are reasons to be more optimistic. The price of oil is already down off its highs. There are several reasons to believe oil might not spike any higher. First off, OPEC countries always cheat and export more than their stated quotas when prices are high. They can't resist. Second, Russian oil will find its way onto the world market, via China or some other route, that's just the way these things work. And third, the United States has excess capacity. US fracking operators took a huge hit during COVID and hundreds of wells were shut down. US fracking is a price stabilizing force but it lags because it takes a long time to spool up operations.